Methodology & Sources
Every data point in this dashboard is sourced from publicly available federal or state records. This page documents each source, its freshness, and the estimation methods used.
Verified Data Sources
Verified SourceUSDA Food and Nutrition Service
September 2025State-level monthly SNAP participation (persons and households) and benefits. Missouri: 667,837 participants, 329,021 households, $130.4M monthly benefits.
Tables/files: SNAP Persons Participating, SNAP Households, SNAP Benefits
https://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snapU.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2019-2023 5-Year Estimates
2023 (5-year)County-level SNAP household counts and percentages for all 115 Missouri counties (114 counties + St. Louis City). Also provides household composition (with children under 18, with elderly 60+, with disabled members), population, poverty status, and employment data.
Tables/files: S2201 (SNAP), B01001 (Population), B17001 (Poverty), B23025 (Employment)
https://data.census.govAPI: api.census.gov/data/2023/acs/acs5/subject?get=NAME,S2201_C01_001E,S2201_C03_001E,S2201_C04_001E,S2201_C03_021E,S2201_C03_024E,S2201_C03_028E&for=county:*&in=state:29
Missouri DSS Caseload Counter
December 2025Monthly caseload data from May 2004 through December 2025 (260 data points). Includes Food Stamp Families and Food Stamp Individuals counts. Downloaded as Excel from the DSS Caseload Counter Historical Data page.
Tables/files: Caseload Counter Excel download
https://dss.mo.gov/mis/clcounter/USDA FNS SNAP QC Payment Error Rates
FY2024 (published June 2025)Payment error rates for all 50 states, DC, and territories. Missouri FY2024: 9.42% total (8.16% overpayment + 1.26% underpayment). National average: 10.93%. QC tolerance threshold for FY2024: $56.
Tables/files: FY2024 SNAP QC Payment Error Rate chart (PDF)
https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/qc/perFederal Court Filings, U.S. District Court W.D. Missouri
March 2025Federal court case Case No. 6:22-cv-03008, presided by Judge M. Douglas Harpool, Western District of Missouri. Key metrics from court filings and reporting: 56% application denial rate, 48.22% denied for interview failure, 49-minute average call wait time, 15,000 callers disconnected monthly. Court-ordered targets: <20% denial rate, <20 minute wait for 90% of callers.
Tables/files: Court orders and monthly status reports
Missouri Budget Project
February 2025SNAP participation and economic impact by county. Key finding: SNAP accounts for over 4% of GDP in some rural Missouri counties. $1.57 economic multiplier per SNAP dollar spent.
Tables/files: County-level SNAP economic impact analysis
https://mobudget.org/snap-participation-and-economic-impact-by-county/Estimation Methodology
EstimatedABAWD-Exposed Household Estimation
Under H.R. 1, SNAP recipients aged 18-64 who are not pregnant, disabled, or caring for dependents under 14 must work or volunteer 80 hours/month. We estimate the “exposed” population using Census ACS Table S2201 household composition data:
protected_households = max(HH_with_children_under_18, HH_with_members_60+) + HH_with_disabled
exposed_households = total_SNAP_households - protected_households
Why max() instead of sum(): Households with children and elderly members overlap significantly. Summing would double-count. Using max() of the two largest protected categories, plus disabled (which is small and less likely to overlap), provides a conservative estimate that likely overestimates ABAWD exposure. This is the safer direction for planning purposes.
Known limitations: The Census ACS uses “children under 18” while H.R. 1 uses “children under 14.” This means our estimate understates the exposed population (parents of children 14-17 are exposed under H.R. 1 but counted as protected here). Additionally, ACS data is a 5-year average (2019-2023) and may not reflect current household composition exactly.
May 1 Termination Projection
The 3-month ABAWD time limit began counting February 1, 2026. Recipients who do not meet work requirements or qualify for an exemption for 3 consecutive months lose eligibility. The earliest termination date is therefore May 1, 2026 (after February, March, and April as countable months). The actual number of terminations depends on exemption processing rates, which are unknown.
What This Dashboard Is Not
- ×This is not a live operational system connected to Missouri DSS data.
- ×This does not contain individual case data or personally identifiable information.
- ×ABAWD estimates are statistical projections, not individual eligibility determinations.
- ✓This dashboard demonstrates what an operations monitoring tool could look like, populated entirely with publicly available data from federal and state sources.
Data Freshness
| Dataset | Most Recent Data | Accessed |
|---|---|---|
| USDA FNS Participation | September 2025 | February 10, 2026 |
| Census ACS S2201 | 2019-2023 (5-year) | February 10, 2026 |
| MO DSS Caseload Counter | December 2025 | February 10, 2026 |
| USDA QC Error Rates | FY2024 | February 10, 2026 |
| Court Filings | March 2025 (via news) | February 10, 2026 |